 |
| Narendra Modi talking to media in Delhi after BJP's historic victory (Pic: Blogger) |
Stalwarts of the 'old BJP' like one of its founder members L K Advani and senior leader Murali Manohar Joshi are feeling left out amidst the euphoria of the biggest ever election victory the party has achieved. Even middle rung leaders like Sushma Swaraj are bearing the brunt of a 'Modi-ride' within the party, leave aside the expulsion of Jaswant Singh, who often mesmerised Atal Behari Vajpayee, Madeline Albright and Strobe Talbot with his stiff upper-lip usage of Queen's English, so prevalent in Westminster.
Powerful triad
As the centre of gravity of BJP shifts from Delhi to Ahmedabad, Mr Modi and his Man Friday Amit Shah have ensured that the political and numerical weight of India's largest state with the maximum number of seats in Lok Sabha, Uttar Pradesh, also fall in line. The 'Delhi-Ahmedabad-Lucknow' triad is going to play a significant role in the chessboard of the Modi-brand of national politics. Having Uttar Pradesh as part of the game plan also has a symbolic connotation for Team Modi, because of Babri Masjid and Ayodhya, and Mr Modi contesting from Varanasi is not just one of the many decisions taken during the polls.
On the periphery of the powerful triad is Bihar, where Sushil Modi has pushed his once coalition partner Nitish Kumar to face the worst challenge of his political life. On the western front, Maharashtra is already having a government in waiting of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, ready to take on a disoriented Congress and an opportunist NCP.
Despite a last-minute alliance with the TDP in Andhra Pradesh, managers of Team Modi will probably use their brute majority at the Centre to gradually assert themselves in the state and project the BJP as a political rival to Chandrababu Naidu.
My understanding is that Mr Modi's game plan is somehow similar in Karnataka and B S Yedurappa may find himself in political isolation sooner than later. By doing so Mr Modi will try to take the steam out of the political capital of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Not that AAP has made any significant impact in national politics, but Mr Modi wants to address the domain of Arvind Kejriwal & Co only to tame the civil society and to nip any possible brand of the 'social Left' from being part of the dominant political discourse in the country.
Those who have analysed Mr Modi's character, his psyche and thought process would acknowledge that he has a tremendous penchant for being part of history. His call for 'Gujarati Pride' or interest in building the tallest ever statue of Sardar Patel are only reflection of such a trait. No one should be surprised if the popular slogan of 'Ab ki bar Modi sarkar' changes to 'Bar bar Modi sarkar'.
Battleground Bengal 2016
The biggest challenge for Team Modi will be to expand the party and its influence to areas which are yet to witness the footprints of Modi brand of politics. Mr Modi's renewed emphasis on West Bengal during the campaign bears testimony to such a strategy.
Team Modi would try to make the next assembly polls in West Bengal in 2016 a battleground between the BJP and the Trinamool Congress (TMC). And similar game plans may also come into play in Tamil Nadu, Orissa, Assam and other North Eastern states, either against AIADMK, or the Biju Janata Dal.
Does that mean Mr Modi will try to liquidate parties like the TMC, using money power from the BJP funders, or the constitutional muscle power of the Centre, or by pulling strings of the Central Bureau of Investigation in cases like the Saradha Scam?
I doubt that. Rather Team Modi will try to decimate those who have the potential of emerging as formidable opposition to Mamata Banerjee, and pit the BJP as the main rival of the TMC. At the national level BJP's main opponent is Congress and Team Modi won't do anything that will offer even a whisker of opportunity to the party. Taking the TMC by its horn, may tempt Ms Banerjee to glide towards the Congress, which may come as a lifeline to the age old party after its worst ever political drubbing.
Mr Modi is also pathologically against the Left. He knows it very well that the Left is ideologically closer to the Congress than any other political formation in the country. Without decimating the Left in West Bengal, BJP has no chance of elevating itself to become the most formidable opposition to the TMC.
The jigsaw of the political puzzle is which side of the political spectrum the supporters of the Left or the CPIM move? In a neo-liberal set up where individualism is at its prime and ideology taken a backseat, political success is primarily linked to delivering benefits. People would support any political formation not so much for ideological reasons as it is for clientelism. No other political party mustered the patron-client relationship better than the CPIM in its 34-year rule. Team Modi at the centre will channelise all its resources to better service its own clientele in states where the BJP has any potential to expand.
Political polarisation may not be socially desirable but it is any politician's delight, especially those like Ms Banerjee and Mr Modi who basically love to operate within a non-democratic set up. Recall the "Either you are with us or against us" statement of US President George W Bush just after 'Nine-Eleven'.
Strengthening of any political element which lies in between two polarising parties only weakens the sharpness of the divide. Any polariser always tends to demonise its opponent to create a sense of insecurity among its clientele so that the supporters tend to cling together and flock with those who serve them in terms of benefits and security. In this back drop, analyse the sharp and uncivil comments made by Ms Banerjee against Mr Modi, or the uncharitable comments made by the BJP and the Congress against each other at the national level.
Newton's Third Law of Motion
In the final analysis, with a BJP government led by Narendra Modi at the Centre, the TMC and its leader Ms Mamata Banerjee will have a chance to consolidate and regroup against a specific opposition, rather than scattered multiple adversaries like the Congress, the CPIM etc. The weakening of the Congress in the state will also ensure that its core support base will flock with the TMC rather than siding with the BJP, especially under Mr Modi.
Sociologists now recognise that Newton's Third Law of Motion -"Every action has an equal and opposite reaction" - also operates at the societal and the socio-political levels. I was first made aware of this by one of my tutors in Economics Kunja Behari Kundu, better known as 'KBK' to his students, while talking about the Harrod-Domar Model. It was further substantiated in academic papers.
Extrapolating that principle, it can be stated that to be formidable in Bengal, the BJP needs an equally strong opponent. This points to the conclusion that Team Modi will rather try to consolidate its position in the next two years ahead of the 2016 assembly polls and not liquidate the TMC. This in effect may guide some Left supporters towards the BJP only for security reasons and against the onslaught of the TMC.
Ms Banerjee and her party have two years to consolidate and regroup rather than fear that Team Modi will initiate a witch hunt. He would rather prefer to decimate the Congress and the Left in Bengal before taking on the TMC.
Mr Modi would rather prefer a 'kaante ka takkar' or a battle of thorns, than silently engineering defection.
Tirthankar Bandyopadhyay is a journalist and media consultant.
He can be contacted at tirthankarb@hotmail.com
All comments are personal.
Good analysis, as always. But I have some element of doubts in a couple of points you stated.
ReplyDelete1. Why should Mamata Banerjee would be gliding towards the Congress? That will not serve her any purpose as the Congress has no longer been a force worth its salt. Walking alone had worked in favour of her. Does she need to provide oxygen to Congress at this pont to take on BJP? Rather she may join hands with Naveen Patnaik and Jayalalithaa.
2. No doubt Modi & Co will try his level best to expand BJP's unfancied base in West Bengal and there will be happy takers.
And, for doing so, why will not Modi use all the weapons he has in his hand? The shrewd politician as he is, he will use government machinery and projects (positively) and money power and CBI (negatively).
I agree what you said about the Left. These days Left means the CPI(M), as the other parties have almost become a signboard having only leaders and no formidable number of workers. A section of Left leaders will shift to the Right to join BJP "only for security reasons and against the onslaught of the TMC".
Politics in Bengal will be interesting to watch in these two remaining years till we reach Battleground 2016.
Sharp. But what I do not see here is the possible prospect of the Left, the Real Left, rather than the Hindu upper caste male chauvinist formation called the CPI(M), which has systematically decimated the rise of any Real Left in West Bengal over the past five decades (One must remember the virulent and violent CPM's rise is really from 1967). Given that Modi-Manmohan's economics are the same, sooner rather than later the exploitative Modinomics euphoria, propelled solely but solely by corporates, will vanish. Left therefore can't be wished away. But in what form will we see the rise of the Neo Left? It would be interesting to brain-pick on that as well.
ReplyDeleteHappened to read your article today . ET dated 21st carries an interesting article . NOT SEEING RED ANYMORE. Mamata's " fish fry diplomacy " at the June 9 meeting with the Left Front has stumped the Leftists . Believe it or Not ! BJP Turns unifier for Mamata and Left too .
ReplyDeleteAgain Rahul Sinha , state BJP president told ET. " You can't imagine how many key Trinamool leaders are in touch with us and I shall tell their names when they join BJP . He also says that many CPM district leaders are also keen to join the BJP